Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Masukura or lighten up the stock market rebound

 Masukura or lighten up the stock market rebound?

When the ice from July 30 to August 13, just 11 trading days, stock index has fallen by 15%, some even close to 40 stocks decline %, one after the hunters who appalling.
I can not help but think of the Tang Hua wrote, high, very dead animal groups. Ting Zhang told I said: bottom recovery trend, intraday sell into integers below 2400 points mark, reaching the lowest round of market adjustment, the minimum probe to 2370.74 points in the afternoon a slight rebound in heavy volume, stock index closed at 2446.30 points. nonferrous metal plate and a strong agricultural sector performance .
late heavy volume, causing the market reverie. but I think expectations are still pessimistic at the macroeconomic and related policies are not adjusted, the stock market performance and the maintenance of stability not only in the case of substantive action, should seize the opportunity to lighten up a rebound.
from a macroeconomic perspective, the expected short-term pessimism is difficult to change.
8 12, my said: . On the other hand, countries do not share the pressure through the tax cut to help enterprises, leading enterprises in the two extrusion process, decreased profits, many businesses profit slid from a loss or even bankruptcy. pessimistic about business prospects, as a barometer of the real economy stock market, the advance of this pessimism to reflect. Meanwhile, adjust credit policy to promote enterprise development. but short term, inflation is still considered as top priority, they hope the introduction of short-term adjustments. You can imagine, after the first half of this year, the scale of 67000 following the collapse of these small and medium enterprises, in the second half, there will be more business-related policies have been failures mm if not adjusted to it.
This means that the stock market value assessment system will be disrupted. in the main stock index fell below 2400 points , A share price-earnings ratio has dropped to 18.94 times, while the U.S. price-earnings ratio of 25 times the SP500 index,UGG boots clearance, the Nasdaq trades at 39 times,cheap UGG boots, from the horizontal comparison, the level of China's stock market price-earnings ratio has been on the low side, is the February 1995 the lowest period of time. However, if the macro-economic recession, corporate profits fall, then, A shares in turn adjust the future earnings.
A shares not only the macroeconomic impact of the valuation system, the cost of one dollar positions below the cost of even the position The size of non-negative,UGG shoes, even in the current selling price of the stock, there are still very profitable, this is not fair game itself completely destroyed the Chinese stock market's valuation system. Thus, the existing methods to determine whether the Chinese stock market investment value is very difficult.
So, I had stressed last September, do not because the ; low, even the size of non-negative, compared to only one significant disadvantage of the cost. Therefore, the investment value of Chinese stock market can only be relative, not absolute, and unlikely to benefit ordinary investors, even if short-term opportunity profitability, and ultimately may be to uncover a blank.
in a bear market, down no reason, but reason is the need to increase.
Now, in addition to the kinetic energy oversold bounce caused by the intrinsic, substantive support for the market rally Where is power? the power and size compared to non-reduction of pressure, how? This is often an investor needs to ask their own questions.
compared with last year, this year's market has undergone several major changes:
First, the new listed stocks continued to increase, while the additional offering financing amount increased by 71.75% year on year, the amount of convertible bond financing increased by 4.3 times year on year, the stock market seems increasingly stretched resources, and shares are still in Victoria been listed in stable sound. This tendency to represent itself is not enough obvious? Therefore, I have repeatedly stressed that the attitude of the officials and authorities, do not just listen to his words, but also watch his deeds. In a Honesty social, interests everywhere, there are several people responsible for their remark? even, there are several people ashamed of their words does not count?
Second, the size continues to increase the number of non-reduction. After 2010 , the number of shares equivalent to re-ban the two A-share market (and the shares outstanding in 2007 compared to), this is a very scary incremental .8 11,Bailey UGG boots, the board announced the company's shares lifted by sale of shares subject to change held monthly, as of the end of July, the limited sale of shares held less than 5% of the total number of 41,446,000,000 shares of lifting the ban, of the total share reform to one-month reduction of data, lifting of the ban in the number of restricted shares during the trough in July, the Shanghai and Shenzhen, . Among them, the knowledge and understanding of human development prospects of listed companies.
addition, also includes the aforementioned macro-economic expectations pessimistic, hot money, and so forth. Therefore, do not make a positive adjustment of macroeconomic policies and the future development of listed companies the case of uncertainty in the stock market rally, even if ordinary investors do not lighten up, institutional investors will take the opportunity to lighten up. especially the rise in the stock market simply because oversold, and did not have substantial support in the case of positive factors , it should make rational choices.
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